Burma is in a flux

The Manila Times

Akash Sahu
June 29, 2021

( COMMENTARY )

ART has a unique ability to transport the mind to the past, making it easier to draw inferences on current realities. The 1949 song 'Mere piya gye Rangoon' features popular Indian singer Shamshad Begum as a woman bewailing her husband, who has gone to Burma for better opportunities. It paints an early 20th century picture when hundreds of Indians flocked to the Burmese capital of Rangoon laden with economic potential. Europeans, Indians, Burmese and Chinese, sometimes with mixed ethnicities and plural religious faiths, thrived in the fast-growing city of Rangoon in a prospering Burma.

After only seven decades, a present-day Burma struggles miserably under a military coup. Unlike the 1960s, Rangoon is no longer as cosmopolitan and modern as Bangkok or Singapore. It has fallen with the country into an abyss of conflicting identity politics and a violent experiment in nation-building.

What went so fundamentally wrong? Many things actually, including the international community's lack of perception in understanding Burma. One recurring theme in Thant Myint-U's book Hidden History of Burma is the failure of the international community to act sensitively. Economic sanctions could very well be debated today as a somewhat inefficient measure to punish regimes (read Iran and North Korea). Burma has witnessed some of the harshest economic sanctions ever imposed on any country. It has crippled the domestic businesses repeatedly as trade would come to an immediate halt, and render thousands jobless. Infrastructure remained fairly deficient, in turn severely impacting education, healthcare and overall quality of life in Burma. When all countries were reaping benefits of globalization, Burma was made the black sheep. Myint-U's book is a harrowing account of how many young Burmese women were pushed across the border for illegal work in Thailand, or even prostitution in China; while many men would be abducted and sold into slavery for years. The human cost of military rule on top of sanctions in Burma has been immense.

What could have been done differently? It is hard to imagine. Engaging the military would have definitely helped to ensure that the lowest rung of Burmese society managed to live with dignity. For a country as diverse, it may have been judicious to implement strong federal structures in Burma, but instead power has remained highly centralized. It has never been truly united since its independence. A number of ethnic minority armies have controlled the fringe border regions. As a result, the army, or 'Tatmadaw,' has been on an offensive for decades. The Burmese struggle could be characterized by the deep insecurity of ethnic minorities constantly fighting for their rights, and anxiety of the Tatmadaw which fears loss of sovereignty and disintegration of Burma.

Bertil Lintner in his book The Costliest Pearl outlines China's sway over the Tatmadaw through the carrot of economic aid, and stick of support to remnant armies of the erstwhile Communist Party of Burma. Unsurprisingly, India warmed up to the Tatmadaw since the 1990s. New Delhi advocates an Indo-Pacific, while Beijing shuns it, and Burma sits in the middle of it. To envisage superior security of the Indo-Pacific when a civil war is unraveling in a pivotal country, is truly an oxymoron.

Military regimes are not easily extinguished. They live on for a purpose, notwithstanding individual ambitions of military leaders. The Tatmadaw also expects a legacy that is respected. As grave violence continues today, that possibility will likely fade into oblivion. The larger dome of authoritarian militarism in Burma rests on gigantic pillars of sharp distrust among Burmese ethnicities, reinforced since the colonial era. The Burmese nationalism could be seen akin to popular Bamar discourse that usually leaves out the minority interpretations. Most peace processes of the past, as Myint-U points out, lacked a futuristic road map for the country. There is hardly any vision to tackle key issues like climate change. The Nargis cyclone of 2008 killed more than 140,000 Burmese and caused widespread destruction. More cyclones are expected ahead. Such issues have the potential to bring people together for a collective strategy. As for external parties, all must consider the trauma of the Burmese people and not let history repeat itself. The Tatmadaw can survive despite sanctions as in the past, but negotiations can bring it around for peace.

History can be tragically cruel. While Begum's 'Mere piya...' is immortalized in Indian imaginations and cherished to this day, the realities in Burma have been long divorced from the once promising destiny. Must the Burmese continue to suffer? Or could they finally have a right to dignity? If compromises are aptly arranged among Burmese ethnicities, no party would have to cede all power. Negotiations could lead the way for autonomy of the ethnic minorities with a civilian-military center. Democratic institutions shall be reinstated and strengthened. It would be an evolving step to peace in Burma, and a chance for its economy to resurrect. But the time to act, build and atone is now. Burma is in a flux.

(In 1989, the official name of Burma was changed by the country's military regime to Myanmar, as part of an undertaking to correct the spelling of Burmese place names in English chosen by British colonial authorities in the 19th century, and adopt spellings closer to the actual Burmese pronunciation. However, the use of Burma has remained widespread, notably by opposition politicians and human rights activists who question whether the regime had the legitimacy to change the country's name. - Ed)

Akash Sahu is a researcher in international relations and area studies based in India. His primary areas of focus are foreign relations analysis, traditional and non-traditional security in the Indo-Pacific, balance of power and Southeast Asian studies.

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