Myanmar: Operation 1027 Moves Civil War Closer To A Tipping Point – Analysis

eurasiareview
By RFA
By Zachary Abuza
February 28, 2024

File photo of Arakan Army soldiers in Myanmar. Photo Credit: Arakan Army

 

Feb. 27 marks four months since the launch of Operation 1027, a game-changing offensive against the Myanmar military regime by the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armies in the north of the country.

The alliance of three ethnic resistance organizations – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA) – had been broadly supportive of the National Unity Government (NUG), the shadow opposition.

Myanmar junta in a make-or-break Rakhine fight

ASIA TIMES
Anthony Davis
February 1, 2024

Arakan Army poised for all-out Rakhine war but replication of recent insurgent successes in Shan state is far from guaranteed 

Arakan Army insurgent fighters take aim in their conflict against Myanmar state forces in Rakhine state. Photo: YouTube / Arakan Army promotional video

 

As the tempo of conflict in Myanmar’s northeast slows after months of dramatic insurgent advances, the civil war’s center of gravity has shifted decisively to the western seaboard state of Rakhine.

China success, Western failure in revolutionary Myanmar

ASIA TIMES
David Scott Mathieson
January 27, 2024

Rebel gains on junta forces owe more to China’s tacit support than the West’s ineffectual soft and quiet diplomacy 

Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army fighters, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, hold their flag atop a captured Myanmar army vehicle. Photo: The Kokang 

 

Myanmar all but fell from the international conscience in 2023, with the world subsumed by the Ukraine war, conflict in the Middle East and the dumpster fire of domestic American politics Myanmar, which competed with Sudan for most neglected conflict, was further marginalized by misconceptions that its post-coup civil war had settled into a grinding post-coup stalemate.

Another 116 from Myanmar including border guards, army personnel enter Bangladesh: BGB

CLICK ITTEFAQ
Click Ittefaq Desk
Publish : 06 Feb 2024

photo collected

 

Another 13 members of Myanmar's Border Guard Police (BGP) have taken shelter in Bangladesh fleeing their posts amid reports of heavy gunfights between the government troops and the rebels in the junta-run country.

264 Myanmar border, security force members now in Bangladesh: BGB

Dhaka Tribune
Tribune Desk
Publish : 06 Feb 2024,

Myanmar Border Guard Police (BGP) members are seen talking to Border Guard Bangladesh members in Bangladesh after seeking refuge due to an attack by rebels on February 4, 2024. Photo: Dhaka Tribune

 

A total of 264 members of Myanmar's border and security forces are now taking shelter in Bangladesh amid clashes between the Myanmar military and the armed rebel group, Arakan Army, Bangladesh Border Guard (BGB) has said.

China says it facilitated Myanmar military's talks with rebel groups

Financial Express
Reuters
Dec 14, 2023 

China facilitated Myanmar's ruling military's peace talks with rebel groups, and the parties reached an agreement on a temporary ceasefire and the maintenance of dialogue, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Thursday.

Myanmar's military government: China brokered peace talks to de-escalate fighting

abc NEWS
ByGRANT PECK Associated Press
December 11, 2023, 4:05 PM

Myanmar’s military government has confirmed it's been holding talks, brokered by China, with representatives of an alliance of ethnic minority armed groups against which it is engaged in fierce combat in the country’s northeast

FILE - In this photo provided by the Kokang online media, members of an ethnic armed forces group, one of the three militias known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, check weapons the group allegedly seized from My...The Associated Press

 

BANGKOK -- Myanmar’s military government confirmed Monday that it has been holding talks, brokered by China, with representatives of an alliance of ethnic minority armed groups against which it is engaged in fierce combat in the country’s northeast.

China hopes Myanmar achieves rapid national reconciliation - Wang Yi

Reuters
December 6, 2023

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivers a speech during China-France carbon neutrality launching ceremony at Peking University in Beijing, China November 24, 2023. Jade Gao/Pool via REUTERS Acquire Licensing Rights

 

HONG KONG, Dec 6 (Reuters) - China hopes Myanmar achieves national reconciliation quickly and continues its political transformation, top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi said on Wednesday.

Escalating Fighting in Northern Myanmar ‘Triggers’ Live-Fire Border Drills in China

The Irrawaddy
November 25, 2023 

Soldiers from the 74th Army Group of the People's Liberation Army take part in a battle drill in a coastal area of Guangdong province on June 1, 2020. / Xinhua

 

China’s military conducted live-fire drills on the Chinese side of the border with Myanmar on Saturday amid fierce fighting between Myanmar junta troops and ethnic allied forces.

China-Mediated Plan to Repatriate Rohingya Refugees to Burma Advances Despite Fears of More Violence

DEMOCRACY NOW!
Nov 01, 2023

Burma is formalizing efforts to repatriate Rohingya refugees who’ve fled genocide and persecution since 2017. Burmese officials met with Rohingya refugee families in Bangladesh Tuesday to discuss the repatriation plan, which was negotiated by Burma, Bangladesh and China back in April. Burma has said it’s ready to accept the return of some 3,000 Rohingya refugees by December. But refugees have refused to go back, fearing further violence. Rohingya leaders said certain demands should be met, including resettlement to their own land and being granted citizenship. Rohingya community members have also said they’ve been threatened into accepting repatriation, while Burmese officials claim the move would be voluntary. About 1 million Rohingya refugees live in Bangladesh. 

Link : Here

ASEAN Sleepwalking Into Perpetual Limbo – Analysis

eurasiareview
By Collins Chong Yew Keat
September 9, 2023 

The 43rd ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in Jakarta are again a manifestation of distinct power plays and indifference in facing new threats and urgency of risks. This state of inescapable loop is interwoven with conflicting individual and collective interests and strategic calculations, denting any aspired efficacy of the scramble to elevate conflict prevention mechanisms.

Prospect of Rohingya repatriation and options for Bangladesh

Financial Express
A military analysis
Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman
Published :Aug 16, 2023

It has been six years since the massive exodus of Rohingyas took place in August 2017. Initially it was perceived that Myanmar cannot get away for very long with atrocities and crime against humanity of such magnitude. Despite regional power's support and some permanent members support in UN Security Council the condemnation of the act was overwhelming worldwide. Bangladesh's diplomatic initiative bilaterally as well as taking some members of ASEAN on board there was a memorandum of understanding signed in November 2017 between Bangladesh and Myanmar on Rohingya repatriation. In fact, that created hope among many about resolving the refugee issue quickly. To my appreciation the expulsion of Rohingyas from Rakhine was a systematic, well-orchestrated military operation. With my background I understood the drama of taking back the Rohingyas was also a portrayal of military operation. In fact, it is part of a deception plan and psychological warfare. Any military operation without political objective is a nonsensical waste of resources. Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) generals being a bunch of meritocratic cunning professionals would not waste resources.

Rohingya repatriation: Easier said than don

ANN
Tasneem Tayeb
The Daily Star
August 10, 2023 

The Rohingya are also desperate to escape these squalid living conditions and the restrained life of the camps. PHOTO: REUTERS/THE STRAITS TIMES

DHAKA – The recent indication by Chinese Special Envoy for Asian Affairs, Deng Xijun, that the Rohingya may be taken back to their own villages should come as a welcome news for both the one million or so Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh and for the host country itself. The majority of the refugees have been stranded here since the 2017 attacks by Myanmar’s state forces which led to the killing of more than 24,000 Rohingya Muslims and exodus of more than 700,000 victims.

'Separated and Detained': Will Biden and Modi Discuss the Plight of Rohingya Refugees in India?

The Wire
Priyali Sur and Dan Sullivan
21 June 2023 

Biden will likely talk to Modi about China, climate change, and human rights. But what may be absent from the discussion is the hypocrisy of India’s stance on refugees, particularly the Rohingya genocide survivors of Myanmar.

A boy looks on from a makeshift tent at the Rohinya refugee settlement area in Kalindi Kunj, New Delhi, Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2022. Photo: PTI/Ravi Choudhary

 

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi sits down with President Joe Biden for an official State dinner on June 22, the conversation will surely be filled with pleasantries about the mutually beneficial relations between the world’s oldest and largest democracies.

 

Prioritise the Rohingya’s safety and well-being

The Daily Star
San Thai Shin
Tue Jun 6, 2023

The Rohingya crisis continues to leave a tragic trail of immense suffering and injustice.

The international community must ensure that any repatriation efforts are accompanied by guarantees of the Rohingya refugees' rights, security, and justice. FILE PHOTO: REUTERS

The Rohingya crisis continues to leave a tragic trail of immense suffering and injustice. As a persecuted minority group, the Rohingya people have endured decades of oppression, displacement, and violence, which have left an indelible scar on humanity. Their struggle for justice and repatriation has been marred by obstacles, false promises, and political manoeuvring, prolonging their agony and preventing a resolution to this humanitarian crisis.

Threats and cash: Rohingya refugees under pressure for Myanmar return

AA
DHAKA, Bangladesh
Md Kamruzzaman, Sm Najmus Sakib
07.06.2023

 

 

Refugees say authorities using monetary incentives and intimidatory tactics to make them sign up for repatriation, Bangladesh denies charges

A drone view of the Rohingya camps ( Md Kamruzzaman - Anadolu Agency )

Bangladesh and Myanmar have been pushing ahead with a contentious pilot project to repatriate Rohingya refugees, a plan brokered and backed by China.

More than anything else, the proposal – which aims to kick off with the return of some 1,100 refugees – has raised concerns.

Beijing to facilitate repatriation of Rohingyas

The Daily Star
UNB, Dhaka
Sat May 27, 2023

Says China's vice minister as he holds talks with Bangladesh foreign secretary 

China today reiterated its resolve to facilitate the early, safe, sustainable and voluntary repatriation of the Rohingyas to Rakhine State from Bangladesh.

At the 12th Foreign Office Consultations held at the State Guest House Padma today, Bangladesh and China agreed in principle to have dedicated dialogue on public security issues.

Bangladesh delegation was led by Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen while the Chinese delegation was led by Sun Weidong, vice minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China. 

 

India Faces a Two-Front Challenge From Post-Coup Myanmar

THE DIPLOMAT
By Niranjan Marjani
April 26, 2023

Myanmar’s deteriorating situation risks destabilizing India’s Northeast, while the junta’s embrace of China poses threats in the Indian Ocean.

 

 The military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 has altered India’s engagements with the Southeast Asian nation. Myanmar has been an integral part of India’s Act East Policy, with India developing connectivity projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project linking India’s Northeast region to Southeast Asia. India has thus moved cautiously with regard to Myanmar since the coup, avoiding a confrontational approach with the military government.

51 Years Of Myanmar-Bangladesh Ties – OpEd

eurasiareview 

Jubeda Chowdhury
January 13, 2023

Locations of Bangladesh (green) and Myanmar (Burma). Credit: Wikipedia Commons

January 13, 2023, marks 51 years of bilateral ties between Myanmar and Bangladesh. Myanmar recognized Bangladesh as a sovereign state on January 13, 1972. There were many ups and downs between the two neighbors over these 51 years. Why was this? Because the relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar were strained time to time. But this strained tie must be smoothed for ensuring greater regional interest. But Myanmar-Bangladesh needs to strengthen ties for ensuring the greater interest of the two regions such as South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Myanmar military authority informed Beijing they are willing to take back Rohingyas after verification- Bangladesh Foreign Minister

News On AIR
ByAIR News
October 21, 2022

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dr. A K Abdul Momen has said that Myanmar military authorities informed Beijing that they are willing to take back the displaced Rohingyas after verification, reports the official news agency BSS. Briefing the media about the outcome of the meeting with the Chinese Ambassador Li Jiming in Dhaka on Thursday, Dr. Momen said that Myanmar’s military government has conveyed that they would honour all the previous deals signed between Dhaka and Naypyidaw to commence Rohingya repatriation. However, Myanmar did not mention any specific date for the process to start. He said that China has assured Bangladesh that it will continue its efforts to resolve the Rohingya crisis.