Financial Express
A military analysis
Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman
Published :Aug 16, 2023
It has been six years since the massive exodus of Rohingyas took place in August 2017. Initially it was perceived that Myanmar cannot get away for very long with atrocities and crime against humanity of such magnitude. Despite regional power's support and some permanent members support in UN Security Council the condemnation of the act was overwhelming worldwide. Bangladesh's diplomatic initiative bilaterally as well as taking some members of ASEAN on board there was a memorandum of understanding signed in November 2017 between Bangladesh and Myanmar on Rohingya repatriation. In fact, that created hope among many about resolving the refugee issue quickly. To my appreciation the expulsion of Rohingyas from Rakhine was a systematic, well-orchestrated military operation. With my background I understood the drama of taking back the Rohingyas was also a portrayal of military operation. In fact, it is part of a deception plan and psychological warfare. Any military operation without political objective is a nonsensical waste of resources. Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) generals being a bunch of meritocratic cunning professionals would not waste resources.
The UN, the West, the Liberals and the Democracies will express their concerns, provide humanitarian support to Rohingyas, express solidarity with Bangladesh and sporadically impose limited sanctions on Myanmar Junta (which they are immune to). However, when the question of national interest shall arise the politics of reality could be different. Even in 2020 foreign direct investment in Myanmar grew by 10%. Today major investors in Myanmar are some of the leading democracies.
So what are the options open for Bangladesh?
Bangladesh must do everything possible to keep the Rohingya repatriation issue alive and on the table. Beside, traditional bilateral and multilateral approach, a track two approach may be helpful to maintain political engagement with United League of Arakan (ULA), political wing of Arakan Army (AA) and National Unity Government (NUG).
Empowering Rohingyas through education, leadership development and media campaigns which could be a good idea to frame their own narrative and share to shape world consciousness in the plight for human rights.
Currently Junta is in back foot after the coup in 2021 that followed by atrocities against its own civilian population consequently, some of the dissident groups especially AA in Rakhine, People's Defence Force of NUG, Chin National Army, Karen National Liberation Army and many have become headache for Tatmadaw. This is the time Junta may consider greater concessions in the Rohingya repatriation issue if Bangladesh is willing to utilize and manipulate all tools available to get leverage in negotiation. Nonetheless, the legal aspect in International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal Court (ICC) against Myanmar and Junta leadership could create additional pressure, especially if Bangladesh could follow up with ICC for a quick arrest warrant against Gen Ming Aung Hla and top perpetrators of genocide, that would provide enough dividend. Yet, Dhaka needs to develop a credible military deterrence to caution Junta from taking any misadventure of pushing rest of Rohingyas from Rakhine to Bangladesh in future.
Above all the Rohingya repatriation issue should not be taken and handled as business usual. A concerted effort is necessary where synchronization, orchestration and synergy among all organs working on the issue are of paramount importance. Hence having a 'Rohingya Commission' under the Prime Minister Office may need serious consideration.
Lt Gen (Retd) Mohammad MahfuzurRahman, PhD is former Principal Staff Officer, Armed Forces Division, Prime Minister Office
Link : Here
No comments:
Post a Comment