In March 2023, the Myanmar government announced that it would start repatriating 1,140 Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh from mid-April. The pilot repatriation program took off owing to the mediation of China, the Asian power that maintains close ties with both Bangladesh and Myanmar.
However, the other big regional power in South Asia, that is, India, has been so far largely inactive in the process of the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees. Should India decide to display more interest in the process, it would be beneficial for Indian interests in a number of ways.
However, the other big regional power in South Asia, that is, India, has been so far largely inactive in the process of the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees. Should India decide to display more interest in the process, it would be beneficial for Indian interests in a number of ways.
India-Bangladesh bilateral relations are characterized by not only geographic proximity but also historic bonds, economic interdependence, cultural closeness, ideological compatibility, security ties, and political bonhomie.
The most and second-most populous states of the South Asian subcontinent not only share highly cordial relations but also face a number of common problems, including the Rohingya refugee crisis. Bangladesh, one of the 10 largest host nations for refugees in the world, currently hosts over 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, while India hosts over 40,000 Rohingya refugees.
The Rohingya are a Muslim-majority ethnic group indigenous to the northern Rakhine State of Myanmar, and have been persecuted for decades by the military and military-dominated governments of that country. Brutal state repression has compelled hundreds of thousands Rohingya to take shelter in Bangladesh and India since the 1970s, as both states border Myanmar.
The presence of the million-plus Rohingya refugee community has created social, economic, demographic, cultural, environmental, security, political, and even international threats for Bangladesh. While the Rohingya refugee community in India is substantially smaller, their presence has generated social, economic, security and political problems there as well.
And the whole process has been completely disastrous for the food, health, economic, personal and community security of the Rohingya refugees themselves.
From an international security perspective, the Rohingya refugee crisis has contributed to the deterioration of the sub-regional and wider regional security situation.
The most and second-most populous states of the South Asian subcontinent not only share highly cordial relations but also face a number of common problems, including the Rohingya refugee crisis. Bangladesh, one of the 10 largest host nations for refugees in the world, currently hosts over 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, while India hosts over 40,000 Rohingya refugees.
The Rohingya are a Muslim-majority ethnic group indigenous to the northern Rakhine State of Myanmar, and have been persecuted for decades by the military and military-dominated governments of that country. Brutal state repression has compelled hundreds of thousands Rohingya to take shelter in Bangladesh and India since the 1970s, as both states border Myanmar.
The presence of the million-plus Rohingya refugee community has created social, economic, demographic, cultural, environmental, security, political, and even international threats for Bangladesh. While the Rohingya refugee community in India is substantially smaller, their presence has generated social, economic, security and political problems there as well.
And the whole process has been completely disastrous for the food, health, economic, personal and community security of the Rohingya refugees themselves.
From an international security perspective, the Rohingya refugee crisis has contributed to the deterioration of the sub-regional and wider regional security situation.
Despite Bangladesh's highly restrained reaction to the crisis and demonstration of its goodwill towards Myanmar, the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees via peaceful and diplomatic means has not been possible so far. Consequently, the otherwise cordial bilateral relations between Dhaka and Nay Pyi Taw have been negatively affected.
India naturally wishes to maintain good neighbourly relations with Myanmar owing to its national geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic interests.
India requires a friendly Myanmar to keep ethnic insurgent groups in northeastern India under control, to curb cross-border smuggling of arms and drugs, to gain unfettered access to Myanmar's rich hydrocarbon deposits, to establish a land corridor to the wider Southeast Asia, and to limit overt Chinese influence. On the other hand, Myanmar is far more closely aligned with China than with India.
China remains a crucial economic and military partner for Bangladesh, but that has not prevented the latter from preserving its historic and close ties with India. Bangladesh has facilitated the Indian suppression of the ethnic insurgent groups in the Seven Sisters region to a significant extent by dismantling their bases on its territory and extraditing their leaders to India.
Bangladesh has also provided India with cheap transit and trans-shipment facilities in order to give India access to its distant and landlocked northeastern states. Among the South Asian states, Bangladesh currently maintains the most cordial relations with India.
In the context of the Sino-US strategic rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region and India's own border problems and geopolitical competition with China, a non-aligned and equidistant Bangladesh is important from the Indian perspective.
India naturally wishes to maintain good neighbourly relations with Myanmar owing to its national geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic interests.
India requires a friendly Myanmar to keep ethnic insurgent groups in northeastern India under control, to curb cross-border smuggling of arms and drugs, to gain unfettered access to Myanmar's rich hydrocarbon deposits, to establish a land corridor to the wider Southeast Asia, and to limit overt Chinese influence. On the other hand, Myanmar is far more closely aligned with China than with India.
China remains a crucial economic and military partner for Bangladesh, but that has not prevented the latter from preserving its historic and close ties with India. Bangladesh has facilitated the Indian suppression of the ethnic insurgent groups in the Seven Sisters region to a significant extent by dismantling their bases on its territory and extraditing their leaders to India.
Bangladesh has also provided India with cheap transit and trans-shipment facilities in order to give India access to its distant and landlocked northeastern states. Among the South Asian states, Bangladesh currently maintains the most cordial relations with India.
In the context of the Sino-US strategic rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region and India's own border problems and geopolitical competition with China, a non-aligned and equidistant Bangladesh is important from the Indian perspective.
A friendly, stable, and secure Bangladesh is important for India's economic health, socio-political stability, and cultural advancement, and crucial to India's military security (especially in the context of the Siliguri Corridor), territorial integrity (taking into account the “Bangladesh-locked” Seven Sisters) and geostrategic ambitions.
However, the protracted Rohingya crisis, with no visible solution in sight, has already created a number of security threats for Bangladesh as well as for India. In future, it can create large-scale political disturbances not only in Bangladesh but also on Indian territory.
So if India takes a keen interest in facilitating the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees, it would be mutually beneficial for both the countries. It would free Bangladesh from a large socio-economic burden and potential military-political threat.
On the other hand, it would benefit India in a number of ways.
1. It would earn India Bangladesh's goodwill, facilitate further Indo-Bangladeshi cooperation in the security sector and ensure Bangladesh's continued benevolent neutrality in the Sino-Indian rivalry.
2. The resolution of the Rohingya refugee crisis through Indian mediation would boost India's international position and provide them with a huge diplomatic success.
3. It would ensure the repatriation of Rohingya refugees from India as well. According to the Indian government, the Rohingya refugees in India are at the risk of radicalization. Therefore, the resolution of the crisis would remove a source of potential political tensions and security risk for Indi
4. Both Bangladesh and Myanmar belong to the Indo-Pacific region and the Global South. If India assists in the resolution of the Rohingya crisis by mediating between these two states, that would strengthen India's status as an emerging great power and boost its image as a politico-diplomatic leader of the Global South.
5. It would remove a potential source of instability in South Asia, ensuring sub-regional and regional security, and thus adding to India's own security.
6. China has already intensified its activities in this regard, so as a big regional power, India should similarly step up its efforts to resolve the Rohingya crisis. It would provide India with a favourable position vis-à-vis China in the region in general and in Bangladesh in particular. Moreover, India might even work together with China on this issue, and that might provide New Delhi with an opportunity to strengthen its relations with Beijing.
7. It would solidify the image of India as a humanitarian power that prioritizes human rights and human security, essentially awarding India a soft power coup.
Therefore, it is in India's national interests to take an active interest in a just and sustainable resolution of the Rohingya refugee problem. India has considerable political and diplomatic influence over Myanmar, and hence it is in a position to nudge Myanmar into becoming more serious about Rohingya repatriation.
Moreover, Myanmar is now practically in the midst of a civil war. So India can pressurize Myanmar through diplomatic and economic means to speed up the process of Rohingya repatriation.
Bangladesh and India share amicable and mutually advantageous ties, and it is in the national interests of both countries to resolve the Rohingya refugee crisis through the repatriation of the refugees.
Md Himel Rahman is a freelance contributor and a graduate student at the Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka.
However, the protracted Rohingya crisis, with no visible solution in sight, has already created a number of security threats for Bangladesh as well as for India. In future, it can create large-scale political disturbances not only in Bangladesh but also on Indian territory.
So if India takes a keen interest in facilitating the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees, it would be mutually beneficial for both the countries. It would free Bangladesh from a large socio-economic burden and potential military-political threat.
On the other hand, it would benefit India in a number of ways.
1. It would earn India Bangladesh's goodwill, facilitate further Indo-Bangladeshi cooperation in the security sector and ensure Bangladesh's continued benevolent neutrality in the Sino-Indian rivalry.
2. The resolution of the Rohingya refugee crisis through Indian mediation would boost India's international position and provide them with a huge diplomatic success.
3. It would ensure the repatriation of Rohingya refugees from India as well. According to the Indian government, the Rohingya refugees in India are at the risk of radicalization. Therefore, the resolution of the crisis would remove a source of potential political tensions and security risk for Indi
4. Both Bangladesh and Myanmar belong to the Indo-Pacific region and the Global South. If India assists in the resolution of the Rohingya crisis by mediating between these two states, that would strengthen India's status as an emerging great power and boost its image as a politico-diplomatic leader of the Global South.
5. It would remove a potential source of instability in South Asia, ensuring sub-regional and regional security, and thus adding to India's own security.
6. China has already intensified its activities in this regard, so as a big regional power, India should similarly step up its efforts to resolve the Rohingya crisis. It would provide India with a favourable position vis-à-vis China in the region in general and in Bangladesh in particular. Moreover, India might even work together with China on this issue, and that might provide New Delhi with an opportunity to strengthen its relations with Beijing.
7. It would solidify the image of India as a humanitarian power that prioritizes human rights and human security, essentially awarding India a soft power coup.
Therefore, it is in India's national interests to take an active interest in a just and sustainable resolution of the Rohingya refugee problem. India has considerable political and diplomatic influence over Myanmar, and hence it is in a position to nudge Myanmar into becoming more serious about Rohingya repatriation.
Moreover, Myanmar is now practically in the midst of a civil war. So India can pressurize Myanmar through diplomatic and economic means to speed up the process of Rohingya repatriation.
Bangladesh and India share amicable and mutually advantageous ties, and it is in the national interests of both countries to resolve the Rohingya refugee crisis through the repatriation of the refugees.
Md Himel Rahman is a freelance contributor and a graduate student at the Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka.
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