by Jonah Blank and Shelly Culbertson
January 5, 2018
A Rohingya refugee looks at the moon with a child in tow at Balukhali refugee camp, Bangladesh, December 3, 201Photo by Susana Vera/Reuters
The government of Myanmar (also called Burma) recognizes over 100 ethnic minority groups—but not the Rohingya. The term “Rohingya” generally refers to Muslim communities in Myanmar's coastal region of Rakhine, people whom the government classifies as “Bengali” in reference to their traditional ties of ethnicity and culture with the land that is now Bangladesh. Although many (perhaps most) Rohingya families have lived in their villages for longer than the modern nation has existed, they are officially considered migrant foreigners and lack citizenship rights.
Without addressing either the deprivation of basic rights of citizenship or the violence that prompted the Rohingya to flee in the first place, the promise of return will not create a durable solution for the crisis. Given the role of security forces and politicians in carrying out the mass violence that spurred the refugees' flight, the government of Myanmar's commitment must be viewed with apprehension; indeed, on December 12, 2017, the government arrested two Reuters reporters covering Rakhine State. With many of their villages burned, returning Rohingya refugees may expect to remain housed indefinitely in squalid camps, which could then turn into de facto detention centers.
"By accepting responsibility for reintegrating the Rohingya, Myanmar has given the world a chance to hold it to its promise."
A durable solution for the Rohingya in Myanmar depends on their ability to return home without having to face state-sanctioned violence and ensuring their protection under the rule of law. It also requires rebuilding their communities, with assistance from international humanitarian aid workers, and meaningful efforts at reconciliation among the various ethnicities in Rakhine and other states. The United Nations and the government of Myanmar have formed a commission to address some of these issues. But given that the Myanmar government is itself the perpetrator or facilitator of these egregious human rights violations, resolving this situation will be neither easy nor guaranteed. At the same time, a significant proportion of the Rohingya, having lived through the recent atrocities, may resist the calls to return to Myanmar and choose to stay in Bangladesh instead. It would be a violation of international norms if their returns were involuntary. But by accepting responsibility for reintegrating the Rohingya back home, Myanmar has given the world community the chance to hold the country to its promise.
The examples of multigenerational camps for Afghan, Palestinian, Somali, and other refugee communities demonstrate the perils of such an approach. History shows that negotiations to resolve such conflicts are frequently drawn out for decades. The United Nations has found that on average 17 years pass before people displaced as refugees return home. Refugees often spend their whole lives in limbo, while a durable solution always seems just around the corner.
"Expecting the Rohingya to remain in the camps creates both human rights and security risks."
In Bangladesh, the Rohingya would add 650,000 people to a nation of 163 million already struggling with the development, employment, infrastructure, and public service needs that far exceed its overtaxed resources. Its cities are overcrowded, and its public services and environment are already strained beyond the breaking point. Bangladesh is forced to export workers to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and any other nation where employment is available.
Our RAND study on prolonged refugee situations in the Middle East found that humanitarian responses run by the international aid community for large displaced populations are insufficient in situations of medium- or long-term displacement. Expecting the Rohingya to remain in the camps creates both human rights and security risks, and assistance will be needed to help Bangladesh manage public services (including education and health care) for the new population. When populations remain displaced for lengthy periods of time, we found that aid should shift to enabling the host country to provide public services and to expand job opportunities. While pressing Myanmar to assure the safe return of the Rohingya to their villages, the world community could simultaneously help Bangladesh integrate the thousands (perhaps hundreds of thousands) who may not be able to return to their place of origin.
A pragmatic multipronged approach is needed here, one that involves brokering a political solution, creating conditions in Myanmar that can help the Rohingya return home, and helping Bangladesh cope with the presence of what is likely to be a new long-term population. If the United States wants this to happen, it could place its full weight behind these approaches.
After the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda, the world community said, “Never again.” After the 1992–95 ethnic cleansing campaign in the former Yugoslav republics of Bosnia and Serbia, and another one between 2003 and 2010 in the Darfur region of Sudan, the world repeated its pledge. Today, up to a million Rohingya are waiting to see whether these promises have meaning. A few weeks ago, the government of Myanmar provided an opening to prevent another epic tragedy. May the United States, and the world, take advantage of it.
Jonah Blank is a senior political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. Shelly Culbertson is a senior policy researcher at RAND.
This commentary originally appeared on Foreign Affairs on January 4, 2018. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.
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