ASIA TIMES
by Jessica Genauer
October 30, 2023
Will Israel-Hamas war spiral into a regional conflict? Egypt, Lebanon, Qatar and Syria will be pivotal to war’s trajectory and scale
Protesters shout anti-Israel slogans during a rally outside a mosque in Cairo. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Amr Nabil
Fears are escalating the conflict between Israel and Hamas could spill over into a broader war involving other countries in the region.
Neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Syria and Egypt, as well as regional players like Iran and Qatar, are currently navigating domestic and international pressures in their response.
Neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Syria and Egypt, as well as regional players like Iran and Qatar, are currently navigating domestic and international pressures in their response.
So, how likely is it that another country could be dragged into the conflict – or have a diplomatic role in helping resolve the crisis? Here are four possibilities beyond Iran (which we covered in a separate piece).
Egypt: limited desire to get involved
In Egypt, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s regime came to power in 2013 by ousting the Muslim Brotherhood-led government that was democratically elected following the Arab Spring uprising. The Muslim Brotherhood movement has long been a focal point for political opposition in Egypt and is ideologically aligned with Hamas.
Although El-Sisi’s government has allowed some protests against Israel’s actions in Gaza, these have been tightly controlled. And notably, they have not been permitted at Tahrir Square, the heart of the Arab Spring protests.
El-Sisi’s main concern is the conflict in Gaza does not spark widespread demonstrations in Egypt, which could galvanise dissatisfaction with his regime. As such, El-Sisi will try to prioritise domestic stability rather than direct involvement in the war. He will likely support Hamas rhetorically, while doing little of substance to assist its fight against Israel.
Critically, this means Egypt will also remain reluctant to open its southern border crossing with Gaza to allow Palestinian refugees to leave.
For a decade, Egyptian forces have been battling an Islamist insurgency in the Sinai desert. El-Sisi is concerned an influx of refugees from Gaza may exacerbate these tensions and lead to increased militant activity against the regime.
Link : Here
Egypt: limited desire to get involved
In Egypt, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s regime came to power in 2013 by ousting the Muslim Brotherhood-led government that was democratically elected following the Arab Spring uprising. The Muslim Brotherhood movement has long been a focal point for political opposition in Egypt and is ideologically aligned with Hamas.
Although El-Sisi’s government has allowed some protests against Israel’s actions in Gaza, these have been tightly controlled. And notably, they have not been permitted at Tahrir Square, the heart of the Arab Spring protests.
El-Sisi’s main concern is the conflict in Gaza does not spark widespread demonstrations in Egypt, which could galvanise dissatisfaction with his regime. As such, El-Sisi will try to prioritise domestic stability rather than direct involvement in the war. He will likely support Hamas rhetorically, while doing little of substance to assist its fight against Israel.
Critically, this means Egypt will also remain reluctant to open its southern border crossing with Gaza to allow Palestinian refugees to leave.
For a decade, Egyptian forces have been battling an Islamist insurgency in the Sinai desert. El-Sisi is concerned an influx of refugees from Gaza may exacerbate these tensions and lead to increased militant activity against the regime.
Link : Here
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