The Irrawaddy
by Aung Zaw
October 30, 2023
MNDAA Major General Peng Deqi (centre right) commands operations against Myanmar's military near Lashio Township in Myanmar’s northern Shan State on Oct. 27, 2023. / AFP
Its title—“Operation 1027”, a reference to its Oct. 27 launch date—is reminiscent of the code names the communist insurgents once gave to their military operations against the Myanmar military.
This time, it is the Brotherhood Alliance—a tripartite military alliance comprising the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)—that has launched simultaneous attacks, striking regime targets and bases in several towns in northern Shan State.
Analysts say the offensive surprised the regime, catching its military off guard. The military command in Naypyitaw failed to provide intelligence on the launch of the attacks, though they had prior warning that an operation was afoot.
The regime was aware the Brotherhood Alliance was stockpiling ammunition for a fight. Prior to the operation, top-ranking military officials in Naypyitaw reached out to the alliance but failed to prevent the attacks, according to political observers.
Analysts say the offensive surprised the regime, catching its military off guard. The military command in Naypyitaw failed to provide intelligence on the launch of the attacks, though they had prior warning that an operation was afoot.
The regime was aware the Brotherhood Alliance was stockpiling ammunition for a fight. Prior to the operation, top-ranking military officials in Naypyitaw reached out to the alliance but failed to prevent the attacks, according to political observers.
The Brotherhood Alliance seizes a junta military camp on Oct. 29, 2023. / The Kokang
It is expected that this operation will be a long one, lasting weeks, if not months. But military analysts close to the alliance say it has the capacity to hold out during the dry season.
At 4 a.m. Friday, the ethnic groups simultaneously attacked regime targets in Kyaukme, Kutkai, Muse, Lashio, Namkham, Nawnghkio and Chin Shwe Haw in northern Shan State and the ruby mining area of Mogoke in upper Mandalay Region.
As of the beginning of this week, alliance forces have taken more than 40 military outposts in the northern region, killing dozens, if not hundreds, of police officers and military personnel. Surprisingly, this happened within three days.
The operation also blocked lucrative trade routes between China and Myanmar—the Lashio-Muse Highway and Lashio-Chin Shwe Haw Road—to prevent regime reinforcements from using them.
All trade routes with China, including the busiest border checkpoint in Muse, are now reportedly under Brotherhood Alliance control and currently closed due to ongoing fighting. Chin Shwe Haw, a trading town that borders China, also fell to the insurgents.
TNLA and MNDAA troops managed to seize several strategic military outposts in their respective areas.
The junta attempted to counterattack the alliance forces using aircraft and artillery, but so far it has failed to recapture bases and outposts.
Major General Zaw Min Tun, the spokesperson for the military government, acknowledged that towns in northern Shan State had been attacked, and that members of the security forces were killed in the town of Chin Shwe Haw, but did not give a number.
At 4 a.m. Friday, the ethnic groups simultaneously attacked regime targets in Kyaukme, Kutkai, Muse, Lashio, Namkham, Nawnghkio and Chin Shwe Haw in northern Shan State and the ruby mining area of Mogoke in upper Mandalay Region.
As of the beginning of this week, alliance forces have taken more than 40 military outposts in the northern region, killing dozens, if not hundreds, of police officers and military personnel. Surprisingly, this happened within three days.
The operation also blocked lucrative trade routes between China and Myanmar—the Lashio-Muse Highway and Lashio-Chin Shwe Haw Road—to prevent regime reinforcements from using them.
All trade routes with China, including the busiest border checkpoint in Muse, are now reportedly under Brotherhood Alliance control and currently closed due to ongoing fighting. Chin Shwe Haw, a trading town that borders China, also fell to the insurgents.
TNLA and MNDAA troops managed to seize several strategic military outposts in their respective areas.
The junta attempted to counterattack the alliance forces using aircraft and artillery, but so far it has failed to recapture bases and outposts.
Major General Zaw Min Tun, the spokesperson for the military government, acknowledged that towns in northern Shan State had been attacked, and that members of the security forces were killed in the town of Chin Shwe Haw, but did not give a number.
This operation is different from previous ones. There is support for the Brotherhood Alliance, as several pro-democracy forces including the People’s Defense Force (PDF) are collaborating with it. In addition, this time public sentiment firmly backs Operation 1027.
Aside from the PDF, the Burma People’s Liberation Army (BPLA), many of whose members received training from the MNDAA and TNLA in the northern region, has also joined the attacks on junta targets.
Near Chin Shwe Haw, BPLA troops reportedly killed several dozen soldiers from the Myanmar military’s Light Infantry Division 33. That battle is one of many waged as part of the operation that will give young pro-democracy fighters valuable battlefield experience.
Since the coup in 2021, thousands of people who joined the resistance have received training and arms from the TNLA, MNDAA, AA and Kachin Independence Army (KIA).
This time, thanks to the PDF forces, over 1,000 drones have been deployed to attack regime forces and allied militias known as Pyithusit.
The Brotherhood Alliance has become more confident about engaging with the media, releasing timely updates on its operation, while the regime in Naypyitaw lags behind.
TNLA spokesperson Colonel Tar Aik Kyaw said, “In the past ethnic minorities fought the dictatorship alone, but today all ethnicities resist this junta. If everyone throughout the country joins this operation, we can break the dictatorship.”
China calls for ceasefire
The renewed armed conflict is causing instability along the China-Myanmar border, upsetting China.
In the past, fighting along the border resulted in an influx of war refugees into China, prompting repeated calls from Beijing for the regime and insurgents to enter a ceasefire.
China has also previously complained of shells and bombs landing on its soil as a result of armed conflict in Myanmar.
This time the spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said, “China is highly concerned about the clashes,” and urged all parties to “avoid escalation of incidents and take practical and effective measures to ensure security and stability along the China-Myanmar border.”
China has in the past urged northern forces to enter ceasefire talks with the regime. Being based on the border, they are all under the influence of China and it is assumed that they will listen to Beijing.
In March, leaders of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), a coalition of seven EAOs based in northern Myanmar, met the Chinese special envoy to Myanmar, Deng Xijun, in China.
The FPNCC is made up of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), KIA, National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), AA, TNLA and MNDAA.
After meeting the Chinese envoy and hearing his repeated calls for them to enter ceasefire talks with the regime, the FPNCC said in a statement, “We welcome and support China’s involvement to end the domestic conflicts in Myanmar,” adding that it would “continue working together with the Chinese government to improve the stability of border areas.”
However, leaders of two members of the FPNCC—the MNDAA and the TNLA—insisted to the Chinese special envoy that they would continue to fight. The other members did not say much.
The same month regime leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing received Deng in Naypyitaw and pledged stability on the border.
Following the meeting, the junta moved battalions based near the Myanmar-China border to resistance strongholds in central and southeastern Myanmar, where they have launched massive offensive operations. It is believed the regime has moved some 3,000 troops formerly stationed near the border in Shan State to conflict areas inland.
Regime soldiers detained by the Brotherhood Alliance on Oct. 29, 2023. / The Kokang
Now the regime needs to send reinforcements back to the northern region. Approximately 2,000 troops will be pulled out of various regions and sent there.
This is going to be difficult since the regime faces armed resistance on several fronts including in Kayah, Karen and Chin states and Sagaing Region.
Countering cybercrime?
Soon after Operation 1027’s launch, alliance forces said that in addition to “eradicating the oppressive military dictatorship, a shared aspiration of the entire Myanmar population,” one of the aims of the operation is to eradicate cyber scams in the Kokang region, also known as Shan State Special Region 1, which are mainly operated by the military regime and allied militia groups. A clever strategy to appease China?
China this year pressured Myanmar’s junta, as well as ethic armed groups, to take action against cyber scams, which Beijing’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says have “seriously harmed Chinese interests.”
In the first week of September, the UWSA handed over 1,000 Chinese citizens involved in cyber scams to Chinese police.
This is going to be difficult since the regime faces armed resistance on several fronts including in Kayah, Karen and Chin states and Sagaing Region.
Countering cybercrime?
Soon after Operation 1027’s launch, alliance forces said that in addition to “eradicating the oppressive military dictatorship, a shared aspiration of the entire Myanmar population,” one of the aims of the operation is to eradicate cyber scams in the Kokang region, also known as Shan State Special Region 1, which are mainly operated by the military regime and allied militia groups. A clever strategy to appease China?
China this year pressured Myanmar’s junta, as well as ethic armed groups, to take action against cyber scams, which Beijing’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says have “seriously harmed Chinese interests.”
In the first week of September, the UWSA handed over 1,000 Chinese citizens involved in cyber scams to Chinese police.
The Chinese government also issued arrest warrants for a minister and a mayor in the Wa Self-Administered Zone (SAZ) for their alleged leading roles in telecom fraud gangs in the autonomous region of Myanmar’s northern Shan State near the Chinese border.
And in early October, China arrested a deputy military chief from the UWSA for alleged involvement in cyber scams. He was arrested on the Chinese side.
China also plans to set up a “strict border control zone” in the city of Tengchong, one of its main gateways to Myanmar.
Myanmar’s failure to address cyber scams continues to harm relations between Beijing and the junta.
Several thousand Chinese nationals are believed to live in border regions controlled by ethic insurgents and militias affiliated with the regime.
In any case, the regime seems to have lost control in the northern region—but not for the first time.
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