Myanmar coup: Asean leadership offers best chance to avert a refugee crisis

South China Morning Post

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

Opinion

7 Apr, 2021

• Many international actors are vying to play the role of peacemaker in Myanmar, but Asean – flaws and all – remains the most suited to broker talks

• The efforts of Indonesia, along with other key members, show genuine interest to stop growing instability in the country from spilling across the region

Myanmar refugees line up to receive rescue materials in a camp in Manghai, a small border town between China and Myanmar in Yunnan province, in November 2016. Continuing violence in Myanmar has neighbours China, India and Thailand worried about a fresh exodus of refugees fleeing across their border. Photo: Simon Song

A breakthrough could be in the offing as China lends support to an Asean-led initiative to de-escalate the situation in Myanmar and bring warring parties to a dialogue. Last week, foreign ministers from Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines flew to Nanping in southeastern Fujian province to meetForeign Minister Wang Yi.

The four one-on-one meetings took place against the backdrop of spiralling violence in Myanmar, putting neighbours on edge and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ gravitas on the line.

China remains the most influential major power in Myanmar. Hence, getting Beijing on board raises the prospects for an Asean-centric solution to dial down tensions and foster a climate conducive for talks. The

early February coup exposed governance and subregional cleavages within Asean on how to deal with the unfolding crisis. Beijing’s weight could help break that impasse.

Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines – four of the region’s maritime democracies and among Asean’s founding members – are pressing for an immediate halt to further bloodshed and offering the bloc’s offices to mediate.

In contrast, Myanmar’s immediate neighbours in peninsular Southeast Asia remain reticent, with Thailand, Laos and Vietnam even dispatching representatives to attend the 76th Myanmar Armed Forces Day on March 27, which marked the most violent crackdown against civilian protesters to date with more than 100 reported fatalities in a single day.

Over 100 killed in bloodiest crackdown on Myanmar’s anti-coup protesters

China’s influence over Cambodia and Laos could help tip the balance in favour of Asean spearheading a dialogue that would bring the Myanmar military (also called the Tatmadaw), the civilian government led by the opposition National League for Democracy, and separatist ethnic groups to the negotiating table.

More than the leverage it wields over regional countries, including Myanmar, Beijing also has complex ties with various rebel outfits battling Naypyidaw, especially those that operate along the two countries’ contiguous 2,000 kilometre (1,243 mile)-plus land border.

Securing China’s endorsement can help Asean get similar support from its other dialogue partners – notably India, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the United States. The challenge for Asean would be to ensure that such a multilateral-backed platform would not contravene its policy of non-interference in a member’s domestic affairs.

• ‘You don’t dislodge people with guns by shouting at them’: quiet talks offer best hope for end to Myanmar violence, say Asean scholars

The past weeks have stacked up the reputational costs of inaction for Asean and China. The spectre of thousands of refugees fleeing violence in Myanmar has also forced the hands of its neighbours.

Thailand and India are bracing for an influx of refugees. Bangladesh, which already houses more than 700,000 Rohingya who fled the northern part of Myanmar’s Rakhine state in 2016-17, likewise worries about a fresh exodus. China’s predicament will not be any different given its long, porous boundary with the distressed country.

Beijing is no stranger to suffering collateral damage from hostilities emanating from its southwestern neighbour. In 2009, tens of thousands of refugees fled across the border into Yunnan province after heavy fighting between the Tatmadaw and ethnic Chinese rebels in northern Shan state.

In 2015, a cross-border raid by a Myanmar Air Force jet raised bilateral tensions as a bomb exploded on the Chinese side of the border, killing four, injuring nine and damaging a nearby sugar cane field.

In 2017, more than 20,000 refugees streamed across the border to seek refuge in Yunnan after heavy fighting between government troops and rebels resumed. Beijing has adopted restraint in the face of these repeated tragedies, but its worries are not being addressed and continued fighting means there is no end in sight to the refugee problem.

Many international actors are vying to play the role of peacemaker in Myanmar, but Asean – flaws and all – remains the most suited to broker talks. Unlike its neighbours, which have competing vested interests over the country, the bloc does not harbour any baggage.

In contrast to sanctions imposed by the West, Myanmar has obtained much diplomatic and economic space from Asean. Singapore has emerged as the country’s top investor and Thailand has absorbed thousands of Myanmese refugees and migrant workers.

Despite strong pressure from Muslim-majority members Indonesia and Malaysia, the bloc’s time-honoured non-interference softened the blow for the country after the International Court of Justice issued provisional measures ordering Myanmar to refrain from engaging in genocidal acts against its Rohingya minority early last year.

Asean expended enormous diplomatic capital to shield its member to the point of undercutting its own global standing. Thus, Asean’s patience to stay the course without encouraging signs from Myanmar will be tested.

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In 2008, Asean’s prodding swayed Myanmar to open up to international humanitarian relief in the wake of the enormous havoc brought by Cyclone Nargis. This is a precedent the bloc can invoke to nudge the current military junta to likewise open up for dialogue and perhaps facilitate an urgent and unconditional cessation of violence.

Myanmar knows that only Asean can provide it a fair hearing. The efforts of informal leader Indonesia, along with other concerned key members, to bring multilateral buy-in show genuine interest to stop growing instability in the country which could spill across the region.

Asean is now more ready to act. Naypyidaw should not keep it waiting for long.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation

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