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Interview: Maj. Gen. Emdadul Islam (retd)
Published: 11 Feb 2024,
Bangladesh is facing a fallout from the Myanmar civil war. Bullets and mortar shells are crossing over the border into Bangladesh creating danger and alarm. Members of the Myanmar army, its Border Guard Police (BGP) and government officials, a few hundred in number, have fled into Bangladesh for shelter. In an interview with Prothom Alo's Partha Shankar Saha, security analyst Major General Emdadul Islam (retd) talks about the prevailing situation in Myanmar, its impact on Bangladesh, Rohingya repatriation and the role of China, India, the US and others. Maj. Gen. Emdadul Islam is the author of the book 'Rohingya: Nishango Nipirito Jatigoshti'.
Prothom Alo :
Towards the end of October last year, three organisations in Myanmar launched the 'Operation 1027', stepping up the anti-junta movement there. What made the rebels unite and take this action?
Emdadul Islam: On 1 February 2021, the armed forces in Myanmar toppled Aung San Suu Kyi from power and took over. Protest and public anger spread all over Myanmar and a violent movement ensued. Supporters of Suu Kyi's party NLD formed a government in exile, NUG (National Unity Government). This government-in-exile formed the MNDA (Myanmar National Democratic Alliance) to bring all anti-junta parties and groups under one umbrella. It was seen that NUG and MNDA were supported by the West, that is, the US, to a great extent and has leant towards the West.
The Myanmar military has always had China's support. Under the circumstances, as part of its strategy to hold on to its geopolitical and geostrategic stronghold, China may have decided to activate the various rebel groups as a 'second line force' in confrontation with the army. China may be aiding and abetting this new aggression of the rebel groups so that NUG does not gain from the people's adverse mindset towards the army and that these rebel groups can take that place.
Prothom Alo :
It is said that China had sparked off Operation 1027. China had been disgruntled with the Myanmar government for the escalating crime along the China-Myanmar border, drug trafficking, ransom and such. Has China changed its stand regarding Myanmar?
Emdadul Islam: It makes no difference whether or not China initiated 'Operation1027'. But this has delivered the Myanmar military a strong message again. It has pointed out that China has a strong sphere of influence even outside of the armed forces. China's stand regarding Myanmar has not changed one bit. To the contrary, China has delivered the message in no uncertain terms that they remain the sole deciding factor in Myanmar.
Towards the end of October last year, three organisations in Myanmar launched the 'Operation 1027', stepping up the anti-junta movement there. What made the rebels unite and take this action?
Emdadul Islam: On 1 February 2021, the armed forces in Myanmar toppled Aung San Suu Kyi from power and took over. Protest and public anger spread all over Myanmar and a violent movement ensued. Supporters of Suu Kyi's party NLD formed a government in exile, NUG (National Unity Government). This government-in-exile formed the MNDA (Myanmar National Democratic Alliance) to bring all anti-junta parties and groups under one umbrella. It was seen that NUG and MNDA were supported by the West, that is, the US, to a great extent and has leant towards the West.
The Myanmar military has always had China's support. Under the circumstances, as part of its strategy to hold on to its geopolitical and geostrategic stronghold, China may have decided to activate the various rebel groups as a 'second line force' in confrontation with the army. China may be aiding and abetting this new aggression of the rebel groups so that NUG does not gain from the people's adverse mindset towards the army and that these rebel groups can take that place.
Prothom Alo :
It is said that China had sparked off Operation 1027. China had been disgruntled with the Myanmar government for the escalating crime along the China-Myanmar border, drug trafficking, ransom and such. Has China changed its stand regarding Myanmar?
Emdadul Islam: It makes no difference whether or not China initiated 'Operation1027'. But this has delivered the Myanmar military a strong message again. It has pointed out that China has a strong sphere of influence even outside of the armed forces. China's stand regarding Myanmar has not changed one bit. To the contrary, China has delivered the message in no uncertain terms that they remain the sole deciding factor in Myanmar.
Prothom Alo :
Strategically speaking, Myanmar is very important to China. China has easier control on the Indian Ocean through Myanmar. They also have interests in mineral resources and other sectors there. What role will China play now for stability in Myanmar?
Emdadul Islam: The well-known Swedish journalist Bertil Lintner, in one of its reports had said that the Kyaukphyu deep sea port located in Rakhine, Myanmar, was the most important installation to China now. It is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative. China has long been uneasy with importing fuel through the Strait of Malacca due to the various obstacles created by the US in the South China Sea. It must be kept in mind that Malacca is China's fourth largest fuel supply route.
Then there is China's industrial zone centering Kyaukphyu. China will conduct its export trade from this industrial zone away from the mainland at reduced costs.
Gas is being supplied to three provinces in China's south region from the Shwe gas field in Rakhine. China has built one of the largest hydro-electric power plants along the river Irrawaddy. So China will never want Myanmar to sink into a permanent instability. On the contrary, it will try to maintain a controlled instability in Myanmar to achieve its strategic interests.
Prothom Alo :
From 1962 it has been the military that has ruled Myanmar, directly or indirectly. It has seen rebellion in the past too and had quelled it. What is different about the armed struggle now?
Emdadul Islam: Myanmar has been dealing with various armed groups since its inception. The Shan State National Army in the Shan State, the Karen Independent Army in the Karen state, the Chin National Army in the Chin state, the Mon Army in the Mon state, the Kachin Independent Army in the Kachin state, the Wa Army, the Arakan Army in the Arakan state have long been fighting. The Myanmar army has always suppressed these armed struggles. It has done so through armed power at times, and at times through negotiations. But there has never been any bloody rebellion within the Myanmar armed forces itself. From General Ne Win to General Saw Maung, from General Saw Maung to General Than Shwe, from General Than Shwe to General Min Hlaing – it has been like a royal lineage.
The most notable factor of the struggle this time has been that never before has anyone of the Myanmar army or their second line force ever fled for shelter into Bangladesh from the battle field. They are fleeing this time and coming to us for shelter.
Prothom Alo :
After the coup led by Min Aung Hlaing in 2021 , the junta government has being losing one area after the other to the rebels. Is there a rift within the Myanmar armed forces?
Emdadul Islam: The reason behind the loss of control in various regions will not be any crack in the existing unity of the Myanmar army. The Myanmar military leadership may see this, at the most, as a weakness in the leadership of the senior General Min Aung Hlaing. This was so in 1992. At that time, General Shaw Maung slipped behind the scenes after handing over power to General Than Shwe.
One must keep in mind that outside of the Myanmar military, no civilian leadership has emerged, or hasn’t been allowed to emerge, in that country. And the people have been given the idea that there is no power outside the military that can hold together the multi-ethnic Myanmar.
Prothom Alo :
The impact of internal conflict of Myanmar is spilling over into the border-lying areas of Bangladesh. The Arakan Army is setting up its control in Rakhine. How much of a threat is this to Bangladesh’s internal security?
Emdadul Islam: The conflict in Rakhine the other side of the border is Myanmar’s internal matter. Even so, it is a matter of concern for us. This conflict is creating a security threat for Bangladesh. Many Rohingya people have taken shelter in Bangladesh due to the torture and brutality of the Myanmar government in Rakhine. The issue of their repatriation has been hanging for long and now it seems to have become even more uncertain.
Our two neighbours China and India have geostrategic interests in Myanmar. Bangladesh must strike a balance with whatever measures they take regarding Rakhine. This is a complex equation for Bangladesh. In his report regarding Myanmar, the former United National secretary general Kofi Annan had clearly said that unless the problems in Rakhine were speedily resolved, this would put not only Myanmar and Bangladesh into a crisis, but the entire Southeast Asia in a dire crisis. He even expressed apprehension of a rise of fundamentalism in the region.
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