ICC’s Request For Min Aung Hlaing’s Arrest Warrant: A Call For Realistic Expectations And Strategic Action – OpEd

eurasiareview
By James Shwe
November 30, 2024

Myanmar's military junta leader, General Min Aung Hlaing. Photo Credit: Mil.ru

As the international community learns of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) request for an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing (MAH), it is essential for supporters of democracy and human rights to approach this development with cautious optimism and strategic foresight. This marks the first request by the ICC prosecutor for a warrant against a senior Myanmar official, signaling a significant move toward accountability for the Rohingya crisis. 

 

Understanding the Implications

ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan has requested an arrest warrant for MAH, but it has not yet been issued. The charges relate to crimes against humanity, specifically deportation and persecution of the Rohingya population between August and December 2017. Even if granted, its immediate impact may be limited due to Myanmar’s non-member status in the ICC and the current power dynamics. However, potential consequences could still be significant:

• Travel Restrictions: If issued, MAH’s international travel may be restricted to non-ICC member states like China and Russia. Note though that Cambodia is the only current member of ICC in ASEAN.
• Asset Freezes: Countries may consider freezing assets belonging to MAH and his associates.
• Diplomatic Isolation: This request could further isolate MAH from international forums and negotiations.
• Increased Scrutiny: MAH’s inner circle including his family may face heightened scrutiny regarding their financial transactions and travel.

ICC Jurisdiction and Potential for Further Action

It is crucial to note that the ICC can prosecute these crimes because part of the alleged criminal conduct occurred in Bangladesh, an ICC member state. This jurisdictional approach could pave the way for more warrants against other senior Myanmar officials in the future.

Impact on the Rohingya Community

For the Rohingya community, this development represents a glimmer of hope for justice. It acknowledges their suffering and may provide some solace. However, it is important to manage expectations, as the path to actual prosecution remains long and uncertain. They should also be careful not to allow this to exacerbate tensions with other communities and apply this towards reconciliation. Note that Rohingya Hindus are calling for ICC warrants on Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army ARSA leaders for colluding with the Min Aung Hlaing Junta.

 

 Regional Dynamics

1. China and Russia: Likely to continue their support for the junta. Both are not ICC members. China will most likely dismiss it while continuing to seek regional stability which it desperately needs to resume the China Myanmar Economic Corridor CMEC – Belt and Road Initiative BRI projects.
2. India: May reassess its stance, balancing strategic interests with growing international pressure.
3. Thailand: Expected to take a cautious approach, weighing domestic concerns against regional stability.
4. Bangladesh: Likely to view the ICC’s request favorably, particularly concerning the Rohingya refugee situation.
5. ASEAN: Responses may vary among member states, potentially impacting the bloc’s coherence on this issue.

Strategic Opportunities for the Resistance Movement

1. Narrative Control: Frame this request as a critical acknowledgment of the junta’s illegitimacy by the international community.
2. Diplomatic Engagement: Leverage this development to advocate for concrete actions against the junta from the global community.
3. Coalition Building: Strengthen alliances with international human rights organizations and pro-democracy advocates.
4. Encouraging Defections: Highlight the potential consequences for military officials to foster defections and weaken the junta’s hold.

Preventive Measures for All Groups
Recognizing that any armed group could face vulnerability to ICC scrutiny, all parties should adopt preventive measures:

1. Legal Consultation: Regularly consult with legal experts to remain informed about international law and compliance.
2. Documentation and Transparency: Keep detailed records of actions and decisions to demonstrate accountability.
3. Training and Protocols: Implement programs emphasizing compliance with international humanitarian law and human rights.
4. Public Relations Strategy: Develop a robust communications plan to counter misinformation and present a clear narrative.
5. Engagement with International Bodies: Proactively engage with international organizations to share perspectives and goals, reinforcing legitimacy.

Maintaining Unity and Focus

1. Unified Messaging: Develop a consistent narrative across all pro-democracy groups to strengthen collective efforts.
2. Addressing Disinformation: Stay vigilant against misinformation and promptly address any false narratives.
3. Long-term Vision: Emphasize the broader objectives of the movement to maintain focus and motivation.
4. Building Trust: Foster strong relationships among various factions to ensure cohesion and mutual support.

Moving Forward

The ICC’s request is a step toward accountability, but it should not be seen as a definitive solution. It is worth noting that the ICC has recently issued warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, demonstrating its willingness to address complex geopolitical situations. To the international community, we call for ongoing support and concerted pressure on the junta. To our fellow citizens, we urge unity, strategic planning, and unwavering dedication to our shared goals. Let us harness this moment to reinvigorate our collective efforts toward a free and democratic Myanmar. While challenges remain, with perseverance, unity, and strategic action, we can transform this symbolic moment into real progress toward justice and democracy for all people of Myanmar, while ensuring that all groups involved are prepared to navigate the complexities of international law.

James Shwe

James Shwe is a Burmese American Engineer residing in Los Angeles, California, USA. He was born in Yangon, Myanmar in 1954 and has been residing in the US since 1984. He is a Registered Professional Mechanical Engineer in California. He owns and operates a consulting engineering firm in Los Angeles.

 

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